⚠ NW Forest Pass required for the Heliotrope Ridge trailhead. Climbing register at the trailhead. North Cascades National Park boundary lies above.
🏖️ Heliotrope SNOTEL at 0" depth — route is likely melted out at the trailhead. The score still describes the freeze/thaw cycle aloft, but expect a long carry (or no snow at all).
🧠 Decision support, not a verdict. This score is a model — verify it against NWAC, the UW forecast, and your own read of the conditions before you commit to a tour. How it works →

Thursday, Sep 10

24 /100
Corn Score

❄️ Poor corn conditions on the model's read. Overnight: 50°F at Heliotrope (⚠️ didn't freeze). Freezing level ~9,640 ft — 23% of route froze above that. Coleman Saddle overnight low: forecast 34°F. Daytime high: 60°F at Heliotrope.

🌙 50°F overnight low ☀️ 60°F daytime high 💨 20 mph wind ❄️ 0" new snow 🔄 0 streak
Confidence 100%
0–44 poor · 45–69 marginal · 70–100 good · methodology

How this score was built

  • Refreeze (× 0.5) 🏔️ 23% route froze +7.5
  • Warming (× 0.3) +16.3
  • Streak bonus (capped at 20) +0
  • Final score 23.8 / 100

Why this score?

  • Refreeze 15/100 contributed +8 pts (50% weight) — Heliotrope above freezing but 23% of route surface froze (0% from air temp + radiative cooling pulls surface freezing line lower) (freezing level ~9,640 ft). Snow surface estimated ~47°F (air 50°F − 2°F radiative cooling — sky 59% cloud, wind ×0.59, humidity ×0.78).
  • Warming 54/100 contributed +16 pts (30% weight).
  • Freeze/thaw streak is 0 days — base score (refreeze + warming) caps at 80 until a streak builds.
  • 🏔️ Heliotrope above freezing — score boosted by route-frozen fraction (23% of route froze after radiative cooling)

Condition Components

🥶 Refreeze

15/100

Air low: 50°F → surface ~47°F (radiative -2°F), Cloud: 59%, Wind: 6 mph, Dew: 43°F, Freezing level: ~9,640 ft (23% of route froze)

⚠ Heliotrope above freezing — score boosted by route-frozen fraction (23% of route froze after radiative cooling)

☀️ Warming

54/100

High: 60°F (mush risk)

🔄 Streak

0 days

Consecutive freeze/thaw days

💨 Wind

20 mph

Max wind (mph) at Coleman Saddle

Sanity-check this

7-Day Outlook

Thu
Sep 10
24/100
Lo: 50°
Hi: 60°
Day: Sunny Night: Mostly Cloudy 73% cl · 7 mph · dew 46°
high conf
tap for details
Fri
Sep 11
54/100
Lo: 55°
Hi: 50°
🏔️ FL 7,963′
Day: Partly Sunny Night: Partly Cloudy 40% cl · 2 mph · dew 39°
med conf
tap for details
Sat
Sep 12
48/100
Lo: 44°
Hi: 54°
🏔️ FL 8,291′
Day: Slight Chance Light Rain Night: Cloudy 85% cl · 5 mph · dew 40°
med conf
tap for details
Sun
Sep 13
59/100
Lo: 43°
Hi: 48°
🏔️ FL 7,677′
Day: Chance Light Rain Night: Chance Light Rain 72% cl · 3 mph · dew 40°
med conf
tap for details
Mon
Sep 14
60/100
Lo: 41°
Hi: 52°
🏔️ FL 7,229′
Day: Partly Sunny Night: Slight Chance Light Rain 73% cl · 4 mph · dew 42°
med conf
tap for details
Tue
Sep 15
51/100
Lo: 43°
Hi: 57°
🏔️ FL 7,937′
Day: Sunny Night: Partly Cloudy 56% cl · 3 mph · dew 43°
med conf
tap for details
Wed
Sep 16
52/100
Lo: 48°
Hi: 63°
Day: Sunny Night: Mostly Clear 21% cl · 6 mph · dew 42°
med conf
tap for details

Freeze/Thaw History

Recent Snowfall

Day New Snow
Heliotrope 4,040′
Est. Coleman Saddle
~9,000′
Source
confidence
SWE Δ
in / 24h
Precip
in / 24h
Depth Low / High
Thu Sep 10 1.0" ~1.5" SWE-implied medium +0.10 0" 50° / 60°
Wed Sep 9 none high +0.00 0" 47° / 64°
Tue Sep 8 none high +0.00 0" 44° / 61°
Mon Sep 7 none high +0.00 0" 45° / 48°
Sun Sep 6 none high +0.00 0.1 0" 43° / 60°
Sat Sep 5 none high +0.00 0.1 0" 42° / 56°
Fri Sep 4 none high +0.00 0.1 1" 42° / 52°
Thu Sep 3 none high +0.00 1" 38° / 50°
Wed Sep 2 none high +0.00 0.1 1" 40° / 58°
Tue Sep 1 noise filtered high +0.00 1" 49° / 63°
Mon Aug 31 none high 0" 43° / 67°
Sun Aug 30 none high 0.1 0" 43° / 48°
Sat Aug 29 none high +0.00 0.7 0" 43° / 49°
Fri Aug 28 noise filtered high +0.00 1" 46° / 54°
Thu Aug 27 low 0" 50° / 53°

Latest Observation

Air Temp 54.7°F
Snow Depth 0.0"
SWE 0.1"
Time 2026-09-10T15:00

Forecasts View archive →

No NWAC forecast data yet.

No UW forecast data yet.

Data Collection

webcam 6 rec 23:25
snotel_june_lake 3 rec 23:21
snotel_wells_creek 2 rec 23:21
nws 1248 rec 23:21
snotel_paradise 2 rec 23:21
webcam 5 rec 23:20
webcam 5 rec 23:15
webcam 6 rec 23:10