Monday, Oct 26
❄️ Poor corn conditions on the model's read. Overnight: 32°F at Paradise (⚠️ didn't freeze). Freezing level ~5,599 ft — 96% of route froze above that. Camp Muir overnight low: forecast 23°F. Daytime high: 34°F at Paradise.
How this score was built ⓘ
- Refreeze (× 0.5) 🏔️ 96% route froze +31.1
- Warming (× 0.3) +3.7
- Streak bonus (capped at 20) +0
- Final score 34.8 / 100
Why this score?
- Refreeze 62/100 contributed +31 pts (50% weight) — Paradise above freezing but 96% of route froze (freezing level ~5,599 ft). Snow surface ≈ air (32°F) — sky 88% cloud, wind ×0.76, humidity ×0.44: clouds, wind, or humid air suppressed radiative cooling.
- Warming 12/100 contributed +4 pts (30% weight).
- Freeze/thaw streak is 0 days — base score (refreeze + warming) caps at 80 until a streak builds.
- 🏔️ Paradise above freezing — score boosted by route-frozen fraction (96% of route froze)
Condition Components
🥶 Refreeze
Air low: 32°F → surface ~32°F, Cloud: 88%, Wind: 3 mph, Dew: 29°F, Freezing level: ~5,599 ft (96% of route froze)
☀️ Warming
High: 34°F (slow softening)
🔄 Streak
Consecutive freeze/thaw days
💨 Wind
Max wind (mph) at Camp Muir
Sanity-check this
- 🤔 Overnight low was right at freezing (32°F) — refreeze may be thin or aspect-dependent (south-facing slopes likely worse).
- 🤔 Paradise didn't freeze (32°F) but ~96% of the route above did — corn quality improves with elevation. The lowest slopes near the trailhead may be icy or slushy instead of corn.
- 🤔 Wind (24 mph) is approaching the 25 mph penalty threshold — slight forecast revisions could flip the score.
Elevation Forecast
7-Day Outlook
Oct 26
Oct 27
Oct 28
Oct 29
Oct 30
Oct 31
Nov 1
Freeze/Thaw History
Recent Snowfall
| Day | New Snow Paradise 5,400′ |
Est. Camp Muir ~10,080′ |
Source confidence |
SWE Δ in / 24h |
Precip in / 24h |
Depth | Low / High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Oct 26 | 1.0" | ~1.5" | SWE-implied medium | +0.10 | 0.2 | 1" | 32° / 36° |
| Sun Oct 25 | — | — | none high | +0.00 | 0.5 | 1" | 32° / 44° |
| Sat Oct 24 | — | — | none high | — | — | 1" | 29° / 47° |
| Fri Oct 23 | — | — | none high | — | 0.1 | 1" | 28° / 36° |
| Thu Oct 22 | — | — | none high | +0.00 | 0.1 | 1" | 32° / 48° |
| Wed Oct 21 | — | — | none high | +0.00 | — | 1" | 47° / 60° |
| Tue Oct 20 | — | — | none high | +0.00 | — | 1" | 42° / 56° |
| Mon Oct 19 | — | — | none high | +0.00 | — | 1" | 38° / 47° |
| Sun Oct 18 | — | — | none high | +0.00 | — | 1" | 31° / 50° |
| Sat Oct 17 | — | — | none high | +0.00 | 0.1 | 1" | 33° / 49° |
| Fri Oct 16 | — | — | none high | +0.00 | — | 1" | 51° / 67° |
| Thu Oct 15 | — | — | none high | +0.00 | — | 1" | 48° / 59° |
| Wed Oct 14 | — | — | none high | +0.00 | 0.1 | 1" | 41° / 52° |
| Tue Oct 13 | — | — | none high | +0.00 | — | 1" | 32° / 46° |
| Mon Oct 12 | — | — | — low | — | — | 1" | 32° / 45° |
Rainier Webcams view gallery →
Latest Observation
Forecasts View archive →
Synopsis
Operations Update: This is the last Mountain Weather Forecast of the 2025-26 season. NWAC will continue to monitor snow and weather conditions. Large storms and/or widespread avalanche cycles may cause us to issue special avalanche bulletins, avalanche warnings, or other spring statements. Mountain Weather Forecasts typically begin in mid-November for the winter season. If you like sunshine and warm temperatures, you're in luck! We're wrapping up our weather forecasting season with a long stretch of warm and dry weather. A high pressure ridge has taken up residency over the Pacific Northwest and doesn't appear to be going away anytime soon. In general, each day should be fairly similar to the last, with only a few subtle changes. Mostly clear skies Sunday night should allow snow surfaces to freeze in open areas, even as temperatures stay well above freezing. On Monday, 5000 ft temperatures easily climb into the low to mid 60s. Passing bands of high thin clouds won't do much to provide relief from the strong May sun. While the chance of showers and thunderstorms is less on Monday, there's still a slight possibility for convective precipitation to develop mainly in the southern forecast zones and near Mt Hood. While most locations won't see precipitation, keep your eyes on the sky. If dark, ominous clouds start to form, a thunderstorm could be heading your way. Onshore flow Monday night may help draw slightly cooler air and a marine layer (clouds) into the lower elevations in the Olympics and west slopes of the Cascades. It's hard to say how far into the mountains any clouds will push. Higher in the terrain (5000 ft), diurnal temperature swings will once again allow nighttime lows to fall near 50 F. Temperatures quickly rebound on Tuesday, and any low clouds in the mountains retreat back to the coast. A passing disturbance to our east could spread a few more high and mid-level clouds over the area, primarily in the East North and East Central zones. But overall, it should be yet another warm, mostly sunny day in the mountains. Enjoy the spring and summer! Mountain Weather Forecasts typically begin in mid-November for the winter season. ~NWAC's Weather Forecasting Team
Extended Outlook
The high pressure ridge continues to control our weather through the remainder of the week. In general, each day will be very similar to the last. The biggest changes could be in the thickness and persistence of any overnight marine layer and ridgeline wind speeds. Overall expect mostly clear, mild nights followed by warm, sunny, dry days. The high pressure ridge flattens a bit on Wednesday, turning the upper air flow more westerly. This could be most noticeable with a change to more moderate ridgeline winds. However, our streak of dry, sunny weather doesn't seem to falter. When could we see a more substantial pattern shift? Good question. Most weather models don't hint at any meaningful change through at least next weekend.
Monday: Showers likely. Areas of freezing fog late in the morning. Patchy fog in the late morning and early afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation near Paradise. Snow level near 5500 feet.
Monday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with showers likely after midnight. Little or no snow accumulation near Paradise. Snow level near 5000 feet.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Snow level near 5000 feet.
Tuesday Night: Showers. Snow may be heavy at times after midnight. Heavy snow accumulations. Snow level near 4500 feet.
Wednesday: Showers. Snow may be heavy at times in the morning. Heavy snow accumulations. Snow level near 4000 feet.
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with showers likely in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers after midnight. Snow level near 3500 feet.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with showers likely in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the afternoon. Snow level near 3500 feet.
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with rain and snow likely in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow after midnight. Snow level near 3500 feet.
Friday: Partly sunny. A chance of snow in the morning, then a chance of rain and snow in the afternoon. Snow level near 3000 feet.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Freezing level near 4500 feet.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of rain and snow in the afternoon. Snow level near 3500 feet in the afternoon.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow after midnight.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Freezing level near 4000 feet.
Synopsis
A weather system will move onshore today across northwest Oregon, resulting in lingering showers for Western Washington. Unsettled conditions will continue on Tuesday for light precipitation. A frontal system will move into the area late Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing heavy snow, including gusty winds to the summit.
Extended Forecast
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers likely in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers after midnight. Snow level near 3500 feet. .THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with showers likely in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the afternoon. Snow level near 3500 feet. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with rain and snow likely in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow after midnight. Snow level near 3500 feet. .FRIDAY...Partly sunny. A chance of snow in the morning, then a chance of rain and snow in the afternoon. Snow level near 3000 feet. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Freezing level near 4500 feet. .SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. A slight chance of rain and snow in the afternoon. Snow level near 3500 feet in the afternoon. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow after midnight. .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Freezing level near 4000 feet.