🏖️ Paradise SNOTEL at 1" depth — route is likely melted out at the trailhead. The score still describes the freeze/thaw cycle aloft, but expect a long carry (or no snow at all).
🧠 Decision support, not a verdict. This score is a model — verify it against NWAC, the UW forecast, and your own read of the conditions before you commit to a tour. How it works →

Thursday, Sep 10

17 /100
Corn Score

❄️ Poor corn conditions on the model's read. Overnight: 48°F at Paradise (⚠️ didn't freeze). Camp Muir overnight low: forecast 42°F. Daytime high: 60°F at Paradise.

🌙 48°F overnight low ☀️ 60°F daytime high 💨 24 mph wind ❄️ 0" new snow 🔄 0 streak
Confidence 98%
0–44 poor · 45–69 marginal · 70–100 good · methodology

How this score was built

  • Refreeze (× 0.5) +0.0
  • Warming (× 0.3) +16.9
  • Streak bonus (capped at 20) +0
  • Final score 16.9 / 100

Why this score?

  • Refreeze 0/100 contributed +0 pts (50% weight). Snow surface estimated ~43°F (air 48°F − 6°F radiative cooling — sky 36% cloud, wind ×0.73, humidity ×1.00).
  • Warming 56/100 contributed +17 pts (30% weight).
  • Freeze/thaw streak is 0 days — base score (refreeze + warming) caps at 80 until a streak builds.

Condition Components

🥶 Refreeze

0/100

Air low: 48°F → surface ~43°F (radiative -6°F), Cloud: 36%, Wind: 4 mph, Dew: 40°F

☀️ Warming

56/100

High: 60°F (mush risk)

🔄 Streak

0 days

Consecutive freeze/thaw days

💨 Wind

24 mph

Max wind (mph) at Camp Muir

Sanity-check this

Elevation Forecast

Issued: 241 AM PDT Thu Sep 10 2026 — values shown are forecast, not lapse-rate estimates
Thu Night
Thu
Fri Night
Fri
Sat
Summit 14411′
Lo: 25° W 50 mph
Hi: 16° W 35 mph
Lo: 12° W 25 mph
Hi: 11° SW 20 mph
Hi: 9° S 20 mph
Camp Muir 10188′
Lo: 39° W 30 mph
Hi: 34° W 25 mph
Lo: 30° SW 10 mph
Hi: 28° SE 15 mph
Hi: 25° E 20 mph
Paradise 5420′
Lo: 55° W 10 mph
Hi: 36° W 5 mph
Lo: 49° SW 5 mph
Hi: 41°
Hi: 46°
Longmire 2760′
Lo: 67° W 5 mph
Hi: 43° SW 5 mph
Lo: 62° SW 5 mph
Hi: 47°
Hi: 59°

7-Day Outlook

Thu
Sep 10
17/100
Lo: 48°
Hi: 60°
Day: Mostly Cloudy Night: Mostly Cloudy 47% cl · 4 mph · dew 42°
high conf
tap for details
Fri
Sep 11
39/100
Lo: 56°
Hi: 49°
🏔️ FL 9,414′
Day: Mostly Cloudy Night: Mostly Cloudy 67% cl · 4 mph · dew 39°
med conf
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Sat
Sep 12
38/100
Lo: 42°
Hi: 46°
🏔️ FL 9,655′
Day: Chance Light Rain Night: Cloudy 88% cl · 3 mph · dew 35°
med conf
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Sun
Sep 13
47/100
Lo: 36°
Hi: 43°
🏔️ FL 7,740′
Day: Light Rain Likely Night: Rain 83% cl · 5 mph · dew 39°
med conf
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Mon
Sep 14
67/100
Lo: 35°
Hi: 50°
🏔️ FL 6,960′
Day: Mostly Sunny Night: Mostly Cloudy 71% cl · 4 mph · dew 38°
med conf
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Tue
Sep 15
55/100
Lo: 40°
Hi: 56°
🏔️ FL 9,144′
Day: Sunny Night: Partly Cloudy 29% cl · 4 mph · dew 37°
med conf
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Wed
Sep 16
35/100
Lo: 46°
Hi: 61°
Day: Sunny Night: Mostly Clear 20% cl · 6 mph · dew 36°
med conf
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Freeze/Thaw History

Recent Snowfall

Day New Snow
Paradise 5,400′
Est. Camp Muir
~10,080′
Source
confidence
SWE Δ
in / 24h
Precip
in / 24h
Depth Low / High
Thu Sep 10 none high 1" 48° / 60°
Wed Sep 9 none high 1" 50° / 66°
Tue Sep 8 none high 1" 38° / 60°
Mon Sep 7 none high 0.1 2" 39° / 44°
Sun Sep 6 noise filtered high 2" 41° / 50°
Sat Sep 5 none high 0.6 1" 38° / 46°
Fri Sep 4 none high 2" 36° / 46°
Thu Sep 3 none high 0.3 2" 36° / 44°
Wed Sep 2 none high 0.5 2" 37° / 45°
Tue Sep 1 1.0" ~1.5" depth+precip medium 0.1 2" 43° / 59°
Mon Aug 31 none high 1" 49° / 71°
Sun Aug 30 none high 1" 37° / 49°
Sat Aug 29 none high 0.4 2" 37° / 46°
Fri Aug 28 none high 0.1 2" 41° / 58°
Thu Aug 27 low 2" 45° / 53°

Rainier Webcams view gallery →

Latest Observation

Air Temp 56.1°F
Snow Depth 1.0"
SWE None"
Time 2026-09-10T14:00

Forecasts View archive →

2026-05-03 Published: 2026-05-03 21:31:44
⚠️ The NWAC program is administered by the USDA-Forest Service and operates from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Seattle. NWAC services are made possible by important collaboration and support from a wide variety of federal, state and private cooperators.
Synopsis

Operations Update: This is the last Mountain Weather Forecast of the 2025-26 season. NWAC will continue to monitor snow and weather conditions. Large storms and/or widespread avalanche cycles may cause us to issue special avalanche bulletins, avalanche warnings, or other spring statements. Mountain Weather Forecasts typically begin in mid-November for the winter season. If you like sunshine and warm temperatures, you're in luck! We're wrapping up our weather forecasting season with a long stretch of warm and dry weather. A high pressure ridge has taken up residency over the Pacific Northwest and doesn't appear to be going away anytime soon. In general, each day should be fairly similar to the last, with only a few subtle changes. Mostly clear skies Sunday night should allow snow surfaces to freeze in open areas, even as temperatures stay well above freezing. On Monday, 5000 ft temperatures easily climb into the low to mid 60s. Passing bands of high thin clouds won't do much to provide relief from the strong May sun. While the chance of showers and thunderstorms is less on Monday, there's still a slight possibility for convective precipitation to develop mainly in the southern forecast zones and near Mt Hood. While most locations won't see precipitation, keep your eyes on the sky. If dark, ominous clouds start to form, a thunderstorm could be heading your way. Onshore flow Monday night may help draw slightly cooler air and a marine layer (clouds) into the lower elevations in the Olympics and west slopes of the Cascades. It's hard to say how far into the mountains any clouds will push. Higher in the terrain (5000 ft), diurnal temperature swings will once again allow nighttime lows to fall near 50 F. Temperatures quickly rebound on Tuesday, and any low clouds in the mountains retreat back to the coast. A passing disturbance to our east could spread a few more high and mid-level clouds over the area, primarily in the East North and East Central zones. But overall, it should be yet another warm, mostly sunny day in the mountains. Enjoy the spring and summer! Mountain Weather Forecasts typically begin in mid-November for the winter season. ~NWAC's Weather Forecasting Team

Extended Outlook

The high pressure ridge continues to control our weather through the remainder of the week. In general, each day will be very similar to the last. The biggest changes could be in the thickness and persistence of any overnight marine layer and ridgeline wind speeds. Overall expect mostly clear, mild nights followed by warm, sunny, dry days. The high pressure ridge flattens a bit on Wednesday, turning the upper air flow more westerly. This could be most noticeable with a change to more moderate ridgeline winds. However, our streak of dry, sunny weather doesn't seem to falter. When could we see a more substantial pattern shift? Good question. Most weather models don't hint at any meaningful change through at least next weekend.

Issued: 241 AM PDT Thu Sep 10 2026
⚠️ Strong winds near the summit will make it difficult to move safely and could produce local whiteout conditions. A high level of skill and experience in alpine terrain, including use of GPS, is recommended for navigation and camping in these conditions.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Freezing level near 13500 feet.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Freezing level near 11000 feet.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Freezing level near 10000 feet.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Freezing level near 9500 feet.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy in the morning, then showers, snow showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Snow level near 7500 feet.

Saturday Night: Showers, snow showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then rain and snow likely after midnight. Snow level near 7500 feet.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with rain and snow likely in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow in the afternoon. Snow level near 7000 feet.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain and snow in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Snow level near 7500 feet.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Freezing level near 11000 feet.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Freezing level near 11000 feet.

Tuesday: Sunny. Freezing level near 12000 feet.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear. Freezing level near 12500 feet.

Wednesday: Sunny. Freezing level near 13500 feet.

Synopsis

Upper level ridging progress off and away on Thursday as troughing develops over the Pacific Northwest late this week. An upper low progresses across the region over the weekend bringing rain potential and cooler temperatures. Drier conditions are expected on Monday with a slow warming trend through midweek.

Extended Forecast

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers, snow showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then rain and snow likely after midnight. Snow level near 7500 feet. .SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with rain and snow likely in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow in the afternoon. Snow level near 7000 feet. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain and snow in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Snow level near 7500 feet. .MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Freezing level near 11000 feet. .MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Freezing level near 11000 feet. .TUESDAY...Sunny. Freezing level near 12000 feet. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Freezing level near 12500 feet. .WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Freezing level near 13500 feet.

Data Collection

webcam 5 rec 23:30
webcam 6 rec 23:25
snotel_june_lake 3 rec 23:21
snotel_wells_creek 2 rec 23:21
nws 1248 rec 23:21
snotel_paradise 2 rec 23:21
webcam 5 rec 23:20
webcam 5 rec 23:15