Thursday, Jun 11 tomorrow
🤔 Borderline — small input changes flip this score; don't over-trust it. Overnight: 38°F at Paradise (⚠️ forecast above freezing). Freezing level ~7,363 ft — 76% of route froze above that. Camp Muir overnight low: forecast 23°F. Daytime high: 56°F at Paradise. Freeze/thaw streak: 7 days.
How this score was built ⓘ
- Refreeze (× 0.5) 🏔️ 76% route froze +24.7
- Warming (× 0.3) +22.5
- Streak bonus (capped at 20) +20
- Recent snow penalty −16.8
- Final score 50.4 / 100
Why this score?
- Refreeze 49/100 contributed +25 pts (50% weight) — Paradise above freezing but 76% of route surface froze (58% from air temp + radiative cooling pulls surface freezing line lower) (freezing level ~7,363 ft). Snow surface estimated ~36°F (air 38°F − 3°F radiative cooling — sky 45% cloud, wind ×0.67, humidity ×0.67).
- Warming 75/100 contributed +22 pts (30% weight).
- Streak bonus capped at +20 pts (7 consecutive freeze days).
- Recent snow penalty: −17 pts — surface needs more freeze/thaw cycles to develop corn texture.
- 🏔️ Paradise above freezing — score boosted by route-frozen fraction (76% of route froze after radiative cooling)
Condition Components
🥶 Refreeze
Air low: 38°F → surface ~36°F (radiative -3°F), Cloud: 45%, Wind: 5 mph, Dew: 33°F, Freezing level: ~7,363 ft (76% of route froze)
☀️ Warming
High: 56°F (mush risk)
🔄 Streak
Consecutive freeze/thaw days (observed: 0)
💨 Wind
Max wind (mph) at Camp Muir
Sanity-check this
- 🤔 Paradise didn't freeze (38°F) but ~58% of the route above did — corn quality improves with elevation. The lowest slopes near the trailhead may be icy or slushy instead of corn.
- 🤔 Daytime high (56°F) is on the warm edge of the corn window — south-facing aspects may go to mush before north-facing ones soften.
- 🤔 Wind (22 mph) is approaching the 25 mph penalty threshold — slight forecast revisions could flip the score.
Elevation Forecast
7-Day Outlook
Jun 11
Jun 12
Jun 13
Jun 14
Jun 15
Jun 16
Jun 17
Freeze/Thaw History
Recent Snowfall
| Day | New Snow Paradise 5,400′ |
Est. Camp Muir ~10,080′ |
Source confidence |
SWE Δ in / 24h |
Precip in / 24h |
Depth | Low / High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Jun 10 | — | — | none high | -0.40 | — | 1" | 32° / 40° |
| Tue Jun 9 | — | — | none high | -1.10 | 1.9 | 3" | 33° / 40° |
| Mon Jun 8 | — | — | none high | +0.10 | 1.4 | 4" | 33° / 44° |
| Sun Jun 7 | 4.0" | ~6.0" | depth+SWE high | +0.20 | 0.3 | 7" | 30° / 42° |
| Sat Jun 6 | 3.0" | ~4.5" | SWE-implied medium | +0.30 | 0.7 | 3" | 30° / 37° |
| Fri Jun 5 | — | — | none high | -0.80 | 0.2 | 3" | 33° / 42° |
| Thu Jun 4 | 2.0" | ~3.0" | depth+precip medium | -1.30 | 0.1 | 4" | 36° / 53° |
| Wed Jun 3 | — | — | none high | -1.00 | 0.3 | 2" | 39° / 54° |
| Tue Jun 2 | — | — | none high | -1.40 | — | 9" | 45° / 69° |
| Mon Jun 1 | — | — | none high | -1.10 | — | 13" | 40° / 62° |
| Sun May 31 | — | — | none high | -1.00 | — | 13" | 28° / 53° |
| Sat May 30 | — | — | noise filtered high | -0.50 | — | 18" | 29° / 44° |
| Fri May 29 | 1.0" | ~1.5" | depth+precip medium | -0.60 | 0.4 | 17" | 32° / 47° |
| Thu May 28 | — | — | none high | -1.50 | — | 16" | 48° / 68° |
| Wed May 27 | — | — | — low | — | — | 20" | 49° / 52° |
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Latest Observation
Forecasts View archive →
Synopsis
Operations Update: This is the last Mountain Weather Forecast of the 2025-26 season. NWAC will continue to monitor snow and weather conditions. Large storms and/or widespread avalanche cycles may cause us to issue special avalanche bulletins, avalanche warnings, or other spring statements. Mountain Weather Forecasts typically begin in mid-November for the winter season. If you like sunshine and warm temperatures, you're in luck! We're wrapping up our weather forecasting season with a long stretch of warm and dry weather. A high pressure ridge has taken up residency over the Pacific Northwest and doesn't appear to be going away anytime soon. In general, each day should be fairly similar to the last, with only a few subtle changes. Mostly clear skies Sunday night should allow snow surfaces to freeze in open areas, even as temperatures stay well above freezing. On Monday, 5000 ft temperatures easily climb into the low to mid 60s. Passing bands of high thin clouds won't do much to provide relief from the strong May sun. While the chance of showers and thunderstorms is less on Monday, there's still a slight possibility for convective precipitation to develop mainly in the southern forecast zones and near Mt Hood. While most locations won't see precipitation, keep your eyes on the sky. If dark, ominous clouds start to form, a thunderstorm could be heading your way. Onshore flow Monday night may help draw slightly cooler air and a marine layer (clouds) into the lower elevations in the Olympics and west slopes of the Cascades. It's hard to say how far into the mountains any clouds will push. Higher in the terrain (5000 ft), diurnal temperature swings will once again allow nighttime lows to fall near 50 F. Temperatures quickly rebound on Tuesday, and any low clouds in the mountains retreat back to the coast. A passing disturbance to our east could spread a few more high and mid-level clouds over the area, primarily in the East North and East Central zones. But overall, it should be yet another warm, mostly sunny day in the mountains. Enjoy the spring and summer! Mountain Weather Forecasts typically begin in mid-November for the winter season. ~NWAC's Weather Forecasting Team
Extended Outlook
The high pressure ridge continues to control our weather through the remainder of the week. In general, each day will be very similar to the last. The biggest changes could be in the thickness and persistence of any overnight marine layer and ridgeline wind speeds. Overall expect mostly clear, mild nights followed by warm, sunny, dry days. The high pressure ridge flattens a bit on Wednesday, turning the upper air flow more westerly. This could be most noticeable with a change to more moderate ridgeline winds. However, our streak of dry, sunny weather doesn't seem to falter. When could we see a more substantial pattern shift? Good question. Most weather models don't hint at any meaningful change through at least next weekend.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with showers likely in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation near Paradise. Snow level near 5000 feet in the morning.
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Freezing level near 9500 feet.
Thursday: Sunny. Freezing level near 10500 feet.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Freezing level near 12000 feet.
Friday: Sunny. Freezing level near 12000 feet.
Friday Night: Mostly clear. Freezing level near 12000 feet.
Saturday: Sunny. Freezing level near 11000 feet.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Freezing level near 12000 feet.
Sunday: Sunny. Freezing level near 12500 feet.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Freezing level near 13500 feet.
Monday: Sunny. Freezing level near 14000 feet.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Freezing level near 15000 feet.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Freezing level near 15500 feet.
Synopsis
Upper level trough moving out of the park Wednesday morning. Upper level ridge building Wednesday afternoon and remaining through Thursday. Weak system moving by well to the north Thursday night into Friday. Strong upper level ridge building offshore Friday with the ridge nosing into British Columbia Saturday. Low level flow going offshore Saturday night as thermally induced surface trough builds along the coast. Very warm days in the park Sunday through Tuesday. Cooler Wednesday as upper level ridge weakens.
Extended Forecast
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Freezing level near 12000 feet. .SATURDAY...Sunny. Freezing level near 11000 feet. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Freezing level near 12000 feet. .SUNDAY...Sunny. Freezing level near 12500 feet. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Freezing level near 13500 feet. .MONDAY...Sunny. Freezing level near 14000 feet. .MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Freezing level near 15000 feet. .TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Freezing level near 15500 feet.