Thursday, Sep 10
❄️ Poor corn conditions on the model's read. Overnight: 48°F at Paradise (⚠️ didn't freeze). Camp Muir overnight low: forecast 42°F. Daytime high: 60°F at Paradise.
How this score was built ⓘ
- Refreeze (× 0.5) +0.0
- Warming (× 0.3) +16.9
- Streak bonus (capped at 20) +0
- Final score 16.9 / 100
Why this score?
- Refreeze 0/100 contributed +0 pts (50% weight). Snow surface estimated ~43°F (air 48°F − 6°F radiative cooling — sky 36% cloud, wind ×0.73, humidity ×1.00).
- Warming 56/100 contributed +17 pts (30% weight).
- Freeze/thaw streak is 0 days — base score (refreeze + warming) caps at 80 until a streak builds.
Condition Components
🥶 Refreeze
Air low: 48°F → surface ~43°F (radiative -6°F), Cloud: 36%, Wind: 4 mph, Dew: 40°F
☀️ Warming
High: 60°F (mush risk)
🔄 Streak
Consecutive freeze/thaw days
💨 Wind
Max wind (mph) at Camp Muir
Sanity-check this
- 🤔 Wind (24 mph) is approaching the 25 mph penalty threshold — slight forecast revisions could flip the score.
Elevation Forecast
7-Day Outlook
Sep 10
Sep 11
Sep 12
Sep 13
Sep 14
Sep 15
Sep 16
Freeze/Thaw History
Recent Snowfall
| Day | New Snow Paradise 5,400′ |
Est. Camp Muir ~10,080′ |
Source confidence |
SWE Δ in / 24h |
Precip in / 24h |
Depth | Low / High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Sep 10 | — | — | none high | — | — | 1" | 48° / 60° |
| Wed Sep 9 | — | — | none high | — | — | 1" | 50° / 66° |
| Tue Sep 8 | — | — | none high | — | — | 1" | 38° / 60° |
| Mon Sep 7 | — | — | none high | — | 0.1 | 2" | 39° / 44° |
| Sun Sep 6 | — | — | noise filtered high | — | — | 2" | 41° / 50° |
| Sat Sep 5 | — | — | none high | — | 0.6 | 1" | 38° / 46° |
| Fri Sep 4 | — | — | none high | — | — | 2" | 36° / 46° |
| Thu Sep 3 | — | — | none high | — | 0.3 | 2" | 36° / 44° |
| Wed Sep 2 | — | — | none high | — | 0.5 | 2" | 37° / 45° |
| Tue Sep 1 | 1.0" | ~1.5" | depth+precip medium | — | 0.1 | 2" | 43° / 59° |
| Mon Aug 31 | — | — | none high | — | — | 1" | 49° / 71° |
| Sun Aug 30 | — | — | none high | — | — | 1" | 37° / 49° |
| Sat Aug 29 | — | — | none high | — | 0.4 | 2" | 37° / 46° |
| Fri Aug 28 | — | — | none high | — | 0.1 | 2" | 41° / 58° |
| Thu Aug 27 | — | — | — low | — | — | 2" | 45° / 53° |
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Latest Observation
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Synopsis
Operations Update: This is the last Mountain Weather Forecast of the 2025-26 season. NWAC will continue to monitor snow and weather conditions. Large storms and/or widespread avalanche cycles may cause us to issue special avalanche bulletins, avalanche warnings, or other spring statements. Mountain Weather Forecasts typically begin in mid-November for the winter season. If you like sunshine and warm temperatures, you're in luck! We're wrapping up our weather forecasting season with a long stretch of warm and dry weather. A high pressure ridge has taken up residency over the Pacific Northwest and doesn't appear to be going away anytime soon. In general, each day should be fairly similar to the last, with only a few subtle changes. Mostly clear skies Sunday night should allow snow surfaces to freeze in open areas, even as temperatures stay well above freezing. On Monday, 5000 ft temperatures easily climb into the low to mid 60s. Passing bands of high thin clouds won't do much to provide relief from the strong May sun. While the chance of showers and thunderstorms is less on Monday, there's still a slight possibility for convective precipitation to develop mainly in the southern forecast zones and near Mt Hood. While most locations won't see precipitation, keep your eyes on the sky. If dark, ominous clouds start to form, a thunderstorm could be heading your way. Onshore flow Monday night may help draw slightly cooler air and a marine layer (clouds) into the lower elevations in the Olympics and west slopes of the Cascades. It's hard to say how far into the mountains any clouds will push. Higher in the terrain (5000 ft), diurnal temperature swings will once again allow nighttime lows to fall near 50 F. Temperatures quickly rebound on Tuesday, and any low clouds in the mountains retreat back to the coast. A passing disturbance to our east could spread a few more high and mid-level clouds over the area, primarily in the East North and East Central zones. But overall, it should be yet another warm, mostly sunny day in the mountains. Enjoy the spring and summer! Mountain Weather Forecasts typically begin in mid-November for the winter season. ~NWAC's Weather Forecasting Team
Extended Outlook
The high pressure ridge continues to control our weather through the remainder of the week. In general, each day will be very similar to the last. The biggest changes could be in the thickness and persistence of any overnight marine layer and ridgeline wind speeds. Overall expect mostly clear, mild nights followed by warm, sunny, dry days. The high pressure ridge flattens a bit on Wednesday, turning the upper air flow more westerly. This could be most noticeable with a change to more moderate ridgeline winds. However, our streak of dry, sunny weather doesn't seem to falter. When could we see a more substantial pattern shift? Good question. Most weather models don't hint at any meaningful change through at least next weekend.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Freezing level near 13500 feet.
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Freezing level near 11000 feet.
Friday: Mostly cloudy. Freezing level near 10000 feet.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Freezing level near 9500 feet.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy in the morning, then showers, snow showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Snow level near 7500 feet.
Saturday Night: Showers, snow showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then rain and snow likely after midnight. Snow level near 7500 feet.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with rain and snow likely in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow in the afternoon. Snow level near 7000 feet.
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain and snow in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Snow level near 7500 feet.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Freezing level near 11000 feet.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Freezing level near 11000 feet.
Tuesday: Sunny. Freezing level near 12000 feet.
Tuesday Night: Mostly clear. Freezing level near 12500 feet.
Wednesday: Sunny. Freezing level near 13500 feet.
Synopsis
Upper level ridging progress off and away on Thursday as troughing develops over the Pacific Northwest late this week. An upper low progresses across the region over the weekend bringing rain potential and cooler temperatures. Drier conditions are expected on Monday with a slow warming trend through midweek.
Extended Forecast
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers, snow showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then rain and snow likely after midnight. Snow level near 7500 feet. .SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with rain and snow likely in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow in the afternoon. Snow level near 7000 feet. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain and snow in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Snow level near 7500 feet. .MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Freezing level near 11000 feet. .MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Freezing level near 11000 feet. .TUESDAY...Sunny. Freezing level near 12000 feet. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Freezing level near 12500 feet. .WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Freezing level near 13500 feet.