🧠 Decision support, not a verdict. This score is a model — verify it against NWAC, the UW forecast, and your own read of the conditions before you commit to a tour. How it works →

Monday, Jul 27

22 /100
Corn Score

❄️ Poor corn conditions on the model's read. Overnight: 43°F at Paradise (⚠️ didn't freeze). Camp Muir overnight low: forecast 40°F. Daytime high: 56°F at Paradise.

🌙 43°F overnight low ☀️ 56°F daytime high 💨 17 mph wind ❄️ 0" new snow 🔄 0 streak
Confidence 98%
0–44 poor · 45–69 marginal · 70–100 good · methodology

How this score was built

  • Refreeze (× 0.5) +0.0
  • Warming (× 0.3) +22.1
  • Streak bonus (capped at 20) +0
  • Final score 22.1 / 100

Why this score?

  • Refreeze 0/100 contributed +0 pts (50% weight). Snow surface ≈ air (43°F) — sky 35% cloud, wind ×0.66, humidity ×0.00: clouds, wind, or humid air suppressed radiative cooling.
  • Warming 74/100 contributed +22 pts (30% weight).
  • Freeze/thaw streak is 0 days — base score (refreeze + warming) caps at 80 until a streak builds.

Condition Components

🥶 Refreeze

0/100

Air low: 43°F → surface ~43°F, Cloud: 35%, Wind: 5 mph, Dew: 44°F

☀️ Warming

74/100

High: 56°F (mush risk)

🔄 Streak

0 days

Consecutive freeze/thaw days

💨 Wind

17 mph

Max wind (mph) at Camp Muir

Sanity-check this

Elevation Forecast

Issued: 317 AM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026 — values shown are forecast, not lapse-rate estimates
Mon Night
Mon
Tue Night
Tue
Wed
Summit 14411′
Lo: 25° SW 40 mph
Hi: 26° SW 45 mph
Lo: 26° SW 55 mph
Hi: 28° SW 40 mph
Hi: 25° SW 40 mph
Camp Muir 10188′
Lo: 35° SW 30 mph
Hi: 40° SW 30 mph
Lo: 35° SW 30 mph
Hi: 33° W 25 mph
Hi: 40° SW 20 mph
Paradise 5420′
Lo: 61° W 10 mph
Hi: 47° W 5 mph
Lo: 56° SW 10 mph
Hi: 44° NW 5 mph
Hi: 62° W 5 mph
Longmire 2760′
Lo: 74° SW 5 mph
Hi: 50° W 5 mph
Lo: 69° NW 5 mph
Hi: 47° NW 5 mph
Hi: 74°

7-Day Outlook

Mon
Jul 27
22/100
Lo: 43°
Hi: 56°
Day: Sunny Night: Mostly Cloudy 37% cl · 3 mph · dew 45°
high conf
tap for details
Tue
Jul 28
22/100
Lo: 47°
Hi: 56°
Day: Partly Sunny Night: Mostly Clear 18% cl · 4 mph · dew 46°
high conf
tap for details
Wed
Jul 29
16/100
Lo: 44°
Hi: 60°
Day: Sunny Night: Partly Cloudy 56% cl · 5 mph · dew 47°
med conf
tap for details
Thu
Jul 30
12/100
Lo: 45°
Hi: 63°
Day: Sunny Night: Mostly Clear 14% cl · 3 mph · dew 42°
med conf
tap for details
Fri
Jul 31
4/100
Lo: 48°
Hi: 68°
Day: Sunny Night: Mostly Clear 22% cl · 3 mph · dew 41°
med conf
tap for details
Sat
Aug 1
14/100
Lo: 50°
Hi: 59°
Day: Sunny Night: Mostly Clear 6% cl · 3 mph · dew 44°
med conf
tap for details
Sun
Aug 2
22/100
Lo: 42°
Hi: 55°
Day: Sunny Night: Partly Cloudy 23% cl · 11 mph · dew 44°
med conf
tap for details

Freeze/Thaw History

Recent Snowfall

Day New Snow
Paradise 5,400′
Est. Camp Muir
~10,080′
Source
confidence
SWE Δ
in / 24h
Precip
in / 24h
Depth Low / High
Mon Jul 27 1.0" ~1.5" depth+precip medium 0.2 1" 43° / 56°
Sun Jul 26 none high 0" 44° / 63°
Sat Jul 25 none high 0.3 0" 45° / 59°
Fri Jul 24 none high 0" 48° / 73°
Thu Jul 23 none high 0.4 0" 53° / 60°
Wed Jul 22 none high 0.3 0" 57° / 84°
Tue Jul 21 none high 0" 61° / 79°
Mon Jul 20 noise filtered high 2" 59° / 71°
Sun Jul 19 none high +0.00 0" 44° / 65°
Sat Jul 18 2.0" ~3.0" depth+precip medium +0.00 0.1 2" 41° / 62°
Fri Jul 17 none high +0.00 0" 41° / 61°
Thu Jul 16 none high 0.5 0" 46° / 64°
Wed Jul 15 noise filtered high 2" 54° / 75°
Tue Jul 14 none high 1" 52° / 73°
Mon Jul 13 low 1" 54° / 69°

Rainier Webcams view gallery →

Latest Observation

Air Temp 56.3°F
Snow Depth None"
SWE None"
Time 2026-07-27T09:00

Forecasts View archive →

2026-05-03 Published: 2026-05-03 21:31:44
⚠️ The NWAC program is administered by the USDA-Forest Service and operates from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Seattle. NWAC services are made possible by important collaboration and support from a wide variety of federal, state and private cooperators.
Synopsis

Operations Update: This is the last Mountain Weather Forecast of the 2025-26 season. NWAC will continue to monitor snow and weather conditions. Large storms and/or widespread avalanche cycles may cause us to issue special avalanche bulletins, avalanche warnings, or other spring statements. Mountain Weather Forecasts typically begin in mid-November for the winter season. If you like sunshine and warm temperatures, you're in luck! We're wrapping up our weather forecasting season with a long stretch of warm and dry weather. A high pressure ridge has taken up residency over the Pacific Northwest and doesn't appear to be going away anytime soon. In general, each day should be fairly similar to the last, with only a few subtle changes. Mostly clear skies Sunday night should allow snow surfaces to freeze in open areas, even as temperatures stay well above freezing. On Monday, 5000 ft temperatures easily climb into the low to mid 60s. Passing bands of high thin clouds won't do much to provide relief from the strong May sun. While the chance of showers and thunderstorms is less on Monday, there's still a slight possibility for convective precipitation to develop mainly in the southern forecast zones and near Mt Hood. While most locations won't see precipitation, keep your eyes on the sky. If dark, ominous clouds start to form, a thunderstorm could be heading your way. Onshore flow Monday night may help draw slightly cooler air and a marine layer (clouds) into the lower elevations in the Olympics and west slopes of the Cascades. It's hard to say how far into the mountains any clouds will push. Higher in the terrain (5000 ft), diurnal temperature swings will once again allow nighttime lows to fall near 50 F. Temperatures quickly rebound on Tuesday, and any low clouds in the mountains retreat back to the coast. A passing disturbance to our east could spread a few more high and mid-level clouds over the area, primarily in the East North and East Central zones. But overall, it should be yet another warm, mostly sunny day in the mountains. Enjoy the spring and summer! Mountain Weather Forecasts typically begin in mid-November for the winter season. ~NWAC's Weather Forecasting Team

Extended Outlook

The high pressure ridge continues to control our weather through the remainder of the week. In general, each day will be very similar to the last. The biggest changes could be in the thickness and persistence of any overnight marine layer and ridgeline wind speeds. Overall expect mostly clear, mild nights followed by warm, sunny, dry days. The high pressure ridge flattens a bit on Wednesday, turning the upper air flow more westerly. This could be most noticeable with a change to more moderate ridgeline winds. However, our streak of dry, sunny weather doesn't seem to falter. When could we see a more substantial pattern shift? Good question. Most weather models don't hint at any meaningful change through at least next weekend.

Issued: 317 AM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026
⚠️ Strong winds near the summit will make it difficult to move safely and could produce local whiteout conditions Monday through Wednesday. A high level of skill and experience in alpine terrain, including use of GPS, is recommended for navigation and camping in these conditions.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Freezing level near 12500 feet.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Freezing level near 14000 feet.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. No snow accumulation near Paradise. Snow level near 9500 feet.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Snow level near 8500 feet.

Wednesday: Sunny. Freezing level near 13500 feet.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Freezing level near 14000 feet.

Thursday: Sunny. Freezing level near 14500 feet.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Freezing level near 15000 feet.

Friday: Sunny. Freezing level near 15500 feet.

Friday Night: Mostly clear. Freezing level near 15500 feet.

Saturday: Sunny. Freezing level near 14000 feet.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Freezing level near 14000 feet.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Freezing level near 13000 feet.

Synopsis

Weak warm front well to the northwest of the park Monday. Trailing weak cold front will move through Tuesday. Dry and warmer weather Thursday and Friday as an upper level ridge centered over the Southwest builds back towards the Pacific Northwest. Ridge weakens Friday night. Upper level trough moving into Western Washington over the weekend with cooler temperatures.

Extended Forecast

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Freezing level near 14000 feet. .THURSDAY...Sunny. Freezing level near 14500 feet. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Freezing level near 15000 feet. .FRIDAY...Sunny. Freezing level near 15500 feet. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Freezing level near 15500 feet. .SATURDAY...Sunny. Freezing level near 14000 feet. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Freezing level near 14000 feet. .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Freezing level near 13000 feet.

Data Collection

webcam 6 rec 18:25
webcam 5 rec 18:20
snotel_june_lake 2 rec 18:18
snotel_wells_creek 2 rec 18:18
snotel_mt_hood_test 4 rec 18:18
nwac_obs 0 rec 18:18
uw_rainier 21 rec 18:18
nwac 0 rec 18:18